Time to check in on the state legislatures one more time before the election (I did a more detailed summary two weeks ago).
This week, the New York Times and the AP both had long pieces that provide good overviews of where the competitive chambers are. Interestingly, both pieces stopped to dwell on the Maine Senate, where, although Obama is poised to dominate at the top of the ticket, Democratic control (by a current 18-17 margin) could be lost. The whole chamber turns on one Dem-held open seat in York County, and public anger over a new alcoholic beverage tax. (Although doesn’t everyone in that part of the state just go get their licka in New Hampshire?)
The biggest prize, and the only state where we’ve seen actual public polling of legislative races, is still the New York Senate. There aren’t any more polls to report here, but one story of note is that Dennis Delano, the one Republican to present a serious challenge to any Democratic-held senate seat, is apparently running for office in violation of the Hatch Act, a federal law that prohibits municipal employees from running for partisan office (in this case, Delano is currently suspended from the Buffalo PD, but still receiving pay).
Our friends at the Burnt Orange Report have been closely following the Texas House race, which has provided the Democrats with an outside shot of flipping the chamber (Dems are currently down 79-71). They previously highlighted four GOP-held seats that were Lean Dem or Tossup, giving Democrats a route to a tied chamber. Recently, they upgraded one other race to Tossup: Carol Kent vs. Rep. Tony Goolsby in HD-102 in north Dallas. Although retaking the Texas House has been considered a two-cycle project, a table-running here would get it done this year. They also listed a number of Lean Republican seats that could flip with a strong-enough gale (HD-55, HD-101, HD-133, and Sherrie Matula in HD-129, whom I know has a few boosters at this site).
The Ballot Box blog at Governing Magazine has been profiling various legislatures in the past few months, and recently featured a few more, including the Ohio House. This is another one that initially seemed like a two-cycle project needing to be accomplished before 2010 redistricting, but this article seems surprisingly sanguine on a Democratic takeover, giving that a 50-50 shot. (Republicans currently control it 53-46, so four seats need to flip.) Two factors are seen at work: the Democrats’ overall advantages in the ground game here, and the disproportionate impact of term limits on the Republicans, leaving 20 GOP seats open to only 6 Democratic seats open, with particularly strong possibilities in the Democratic-trending Columbus area.
They also profile the Michigan House, which Democrats currently control by a narrow 58-52 margin. The Republicans had early hopes to flip it, what with the unpopular Granholm administration and recall efforts against some representatives including Speaker Andy Dillon. However, the same dynamic in Ohio is playing out in Michigan, on perhaps an even bigger scale: Republicans are hurt by term limits, with 29 GOP open seats compared to 16 Democratic vacancies. And the GOP is reeling from the McCain campaign’s abandonment of the state, leaving downballot operations in a vacuum.
Got any other information or predictions to share about a state legislature near you? Please chip in in the comments.
I think we’re going to gain a huge numberof seats and many legislatures while only losing one or two legislatures at most. Much like 2006 I think the prognosticators are not realizing the full extent of another wave election that will effect not only federal races but state and local ones as well. I can almost guarantee we’ll see a few chambers flip to us that noone even considers in danger, just as the NH House and Senate were considered safe republican going into 2006.
But I just have to say this Obama infomercial was a brilliant idea. I love the way it’s setup switching between real peoples’ stories and what he would do to solve their problems.
6 days left, and I’ll tell you what. The race wil be decided by a few hundred votes but the wind is at our back. I just finished walking in one of the most republican parts of the district and the results were very very good.
This race is the one that will write the book on how Texas Dems will win the suburbs in the future.
6 days left.
Give my boss, Sherrie, a hand if you can at http://www.SherrieMatula.com
I had read somewhere a reference to the possibility of a female majority in the NH senate. Anyone know anything about this possibility? I haven’t been able to find a listing of the 24 races.
I’ve followed a set for the past year plus. I’m in Massachusetts (and honorary Californian) and stick more with Democratic blogs, so getting a clear picture of things in fairly Red states is dicey. Both sides (other than SSP 🙂 ) do tend in the mean to have neurotic or otherwise exaggerated senses of how they’ll do this election. Adding it all up, IMHO things do look fundamentally good for Democratic candidates next week but not quite landslide. So, decent gains pretty much everywhere. Reality will prevail, and reality this election has a serious Democratic bias.
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Maine state Senate- no one has a very clear idea or sense of how it will go. There are a lot of open seats; Democrats should formally gain 1-2 on the basis of getting about 57% of the Presidential vote. Losing majority isn’t a big deal given the margin in the state House and holding the Governor office, fortunately. Collins/Allen is probably more important to win if we can have only one.
New Hampshire- Democrats should hold both chambers and the governor office easily. Though seats held in the state House could fall to 220 (of 400) since the actual level of Democratic support and lean is about 55%.
New York state Senate (32R-30D)- about 6-8 Republican-held seats are definitely shaky and 2 Democratic-held seats slightly so. There’s a lot of ferment in the New York electorate on the state level; a lot of moderate/liberal Republicans look ready to defect from the crap Republicans they have supported and a lot of moderate Democrats are very unhappy with voting for incumbent Republicans as they’ve done so far. Following the Joe Bruno circus o’ corruption and his expending his career against Eliot Spitzer this year, this crew of Republicans is done in the minds of the electorate. I’m estimating a +4 to +6 Democratic pickup, higher possible.
+8 or so is required for passing gay marriage legalization if every remaining incumbent sticks with their position on gay marriage, but it seems a few (Republicans with districts along the middle Hudson) have very quietly left themselves some wiggle room on the issue. There does seem to be a geographical divide on gay marriage in the state- Hudson Valley and NYC representatives in favor or persuadable, Long Island suburbia divided, and opposition in the mountains and west.
Pennsylvania state Senate (29R-21D)- I don’t think there’s much doubt of 5-10 seat pickup in the state House. There are 3 open Republican-held and 2 open Democratic-held seats in the state Senate. There doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of information online about the comprehensive picture that I could find. Overall, the sense is of a statewide Democratic Party that is fairly objectionable and a Republican Party that is worse but prevails on incumbency. Pennsylvanians seem to generally keep incumbent Republicans in office on the view that the Democratic candidate doesn’t have enough upside on average and might be a bad risk. So the game is heavily about open seats, where Democrats have some advantage. I’m optimistic of 1-2 gains on general principle and the incrased and motivated Democratic turnout especially in suburbs and the Lehigh Valley. But 3-4 isn’t impossible.
Delaware state House (22R-19D)- not much information to be found online. The districts have on the order of 10-15,000 voters i.e. resemble town elections in scale and issues and tactics. But there seem to be enough unsafe open Republican seats and safe open Democratic seats that Democrats gaining majority is thought quite likely. (It’s about time.)
Ohio state House (53R-46D)- Ohio voters are expelling Republicans from control of statewide government control one office or chamber at a time. This year it’s the state House.
Indiana- there seems to be optimism about keeping the squeaker margin of control in the state House and a slight check on Gov. Daniels. The state Senate is lopsided (2/3 R) and hopeless at present but some gains would be nice. I’m guessing a 46% statewide vote for Obama, which should have some coattails.
Wisconsin state House- Wisconsin Democrats have been polling, planning, and organizing to win majority here since November 2006. This is an invisible army, a machine copied in parts from the DFL juggernaut next door full of people tired of Republican misgovernment and narrow statewide elections. It’s going to happen.
Minnesota- the DFL is looking for 2/3 majorities in both chambers so they can kick Tim Pawlenty’s ass. Which means net +1 state Senator and +4 state House Reps. Don’t have a feel for the odds of it happening, but I wouldn’t bet against the DFL in good years for Democrats. These guys know what they’re doing. As a Republican you don’t want to be on their target list.
Missouri- Democrats should make gains in both chambers but I think just short of majorities this year. Winning governor is a good consolation, though.
Nevada state Senate (11R-10D)- control of the chamber turns on Clarke County seat 7 with an ancient insider Republican incumbent, Bob Raggio. The Democratic challenger is a newcomer from a PR firm, Allison Copening. The district is suburban, mostly or entirely within the NV-3 US House seat district, and has been canvassed to death for Democratic registrations. I suspect the state Senate district has a Democratic registration advantage. It comes down to Titus’s/Obama’s turnout machine in the district- which should be 99.9% efficient- and enough anti-Republican and anti-incumbent mood.
Arizona state House (33R-27D)- not enough concrete information available online to assess particular seats and candidates. But Nathan Sproul’s assessment is fairly revealing even though he seems to be the Arizona GOP’s version of Dick Morris. It’ll be very close for control and inmigrants voting Democratic for the first or second time in Maricopa County and Tucson will be key. Arizona Democrats are going to fight this one very hard.
Arizona state Senate (17R-13D)- not clearly on anyone’s radar that Democrats could win this but Sproul’s list says enough Republicans are shaky. A gain of 1 or 2 seats will be a good start on takeover in 2010.
I’m keeping an eye on the Pileggi-Linder race in Delaware and Chester counties. Somehow, Republican Pileggi manages to hold a seat which includes heavily Democratic Chester. Chester generally has horrible turnout. Obama just had a rally in Chester. Bets anyone?
The D’s control both chambers by healthy margins, but we are very focused on getting to 2/3 in them so we won’t have any more budget struggles and can override Arnold’s vetoes. We will very likely gain one seat in the state Senate, just one short of 2/3, and possibly 6 or 7 in the Assembly, getting us to 2/3 there. Check out my diaries for more information, though I will have updated information and my final predictions later on.
http://www.swingstateproject.c…
http://www.swingstateproject.c…
siena is releasing four new polls in the morning and is in the field with a few more as we speak. we’ll probably have them some time this weekend.
we’ll be breaking them all down beginning early tomorrow morning at TAP.
We only need 5 more in the state house and then if our caucus holds together we can override anything he tries.
Here’s a list of the 8 more likely pickups on our side I put together with a link for their websites if you want to help us out
24B: John Branstad http://www.johnbranstad.com/
53B: Chris Knopf http://www.chrisknopf.com/
16A: Gail Kulick Jackson http://gailkulickjackson.homes…
17A: Jim Godfrey http://www.votejimgodfrey.com
38B: Mike Obermueller http://www.obermueller4rep.org/
41A: Kevin Stanton http://www.stauntonforhouse.org/
49B: Jerry Newton http://www.newton.dflsd49.org
52B: Kate Christopher http://www.votekatechristopher…
Also I think we may fail to hold onto our seats in 51A (our guy got arrested for smoking weed by a playground, I mean cmon!) and 4A. So we need to win most of those seats to get to the 5 seats needed.